Pioneer Meta Analysis preMIT #7

Note: This article was translated from Chinese by AI and may contain errors. Read the original Chinese version.

Before We Start

It’s been a long time since I wrote a meta analysis article (?
I did say at the very beginning that I hoped this would be a periodic series, with Modern/Pioneer alternating every other week.
But in the end I just never had the time, and the meta evolves a bit slowly, so honestly two weeks usually doesn’t bring much change.
Also, each season’s tournaments are different, so attention naturally shifts too. For example, after I qualified for MIT #7 in early July, I threw my Pioneer deck in the closet and only just took it out again recently.

As usual, the online meta is definitely different from RCs and PTs, so I only count decks from RCs.

City Class Games Showdown VII | Ciclo 1 Ano 3

Melee link

First, let’s look at the earliest one, Brazil. It was held in São Paulo with 211 players, eight rounds of Swiss followed by a Top 8 single-elimination.

Playing eight rounds plus single elimination in one day is really brutal = =
Though Taiwan’s seven rounds plus single elimination doesn’t seem any softer.

Rakdos Aggro is the most played at 14%, followed by Jund Sacrifice at 12.6% and Azorius Control at 10.6%.
These numbers are slightly lower than I expected. I originally expected the top decks to take about 50% here (in the US they took 46%), but it’s still within a normal range.

Now let’s look at the Top 8 decks (records taken from the Swiss rounds):

For some reason MTGGoldfish has no data for this event, so there are no card usage statistics.
But really, just looking at the lists above should tell you which cards are especially popular.
Yep, that’s right: Thoughtseize, Fatal Push, and Ob Nixilis, the Adversaryare definitely the most played, with the highest play rates.

Anyway, let’s look at the Top 8 decks.

Azorius Control

UWx Control today can be called the answer-to-everything of the format, beating Phoenix on the left and kicking Rakdos Aggro on the right. The build is basically similar to the earlier structure, but the winning list has more removal than card filtering, so against the two decks mentioned above you don’t need to spend the first two or three turns looking for answers. After all, Rakdos Aggro can kill you by turn three now, and still doing Deduceon turn two is a little bit (a hundred million bits) bad…
But the price is that you should expect to feel uncomfortable in the Control mirror and against 5C Enigmatic Incarnation, where Portable Hole, for example, is utter trash in those matchups…

Also worth noting is that High Noonnow shows up in nearly every main deck and sideboard. Only being able to cast one spell per turn suits control and the current meta very well. Although it also limits you to one spell on the opponent’s turn, the tempo control wants most is trading one-for-one and dragging the game into the late game, while also stopping the explosive first three turns of Phoenix and Rakdos Aggro.

5C Enigmatic Incarnation

Although the list still says Enigmatic Fires, nobody actually plays Fires of Inventionanymore.
The main reason is the same as for Azorius Control above: as a slow deck, High Noonsuits it very well, likewise stopping the explosive starts of Phoenix and Rakdos Aggro, and when needed it can also be eaten by Enigmatic Incarnationto find the three-mana creature toolbox.

In addition, the red Overlord Overlord of the Boilerbilgesand the green Overlord Overlord of the Hauntwoodsare both a great fit for this deck. For one, they fit the tempo, and they pair with Up the Beanstalkto clear the board plus draw cards. They can be found by Enigmatic Incarnation, serve as its fodder, and pair with Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikifor setup or a kill. A real multi-purpose card.

By the way, will Overlord plus Up the Beanstalkget banned in Standard or even Pioneer? Turn-two Up the Beanstalk, turn-three Overlord of the Hauntwoodsto draw a card and ramp. Somehow this feels awfully familiar (Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath: let me out).

Rakdos Aggro

Rakdos Aggro is also the new darling of the current meta. You can basically see it as a Gruul Aggro with no protection and no follow-up resources, but in exchange it gets a higher damage ceiling.
Although, as in Standard, pairing it with the new Leyline Leyline of Resonancecan reach a higher ceiling, given that Pioneer has more cheap removal than Standard (Fatal Push, March of Otherworldly Light, Play with Fire), the payoff for chasing that ceiling is too low.

These two builds are much the same: the main deck chases the ceiling and only the sideboard plays defense. But probably because they expected many mirrors, both main-deck two Fatal Pushand two Reckless Rage.
Also, to deal with High Noon, both chose to put Feed the Swarmin the sideboard.
For midrange and control matchups they pick Ob Nixilis, the Adversary. Dragging out the game, Ob Nixilis compresses the opponent’s life total while also clocking them, which feels really good.

Rakdos Transmogrify

Rakdos Transmogrify uses Transmogrifyto turn a cheap creature into Atraxa, Grand Unifier, and suppresses the opponent’s actions with lots of removal and discard.
It can be seen as the Rakdos version of Indomitable Creativity, but resolving it doesn’t win on the spot. In exchange you get a more comfortable floor and ceiling.

As for finishing, you can hit with Atraxa, Grand Unifieronce or twice and be done, or find Ob Nixilis, the Adversary, sacrifice Atraxa, Grand Unifier, and use the copy of Ob Nixilis, the Adversaryto ultimate and hit the opponent for seven.

I also really like Rakdos Joins Up: reanimate to get value again, and if it gets killed it still deals damage to the opponent.

Some decks choose to use the new card Valgavoth, Terror Eaterinstead. I think each has pros and cons: Atraxa, Grand Unifiergains resources as soon as it enters but eats some removal, while Valgavoth, Terror Eaterhas no immediate resources on entering but is harder to kill.

Rakdos Midrange

This version of Rakdos Midrange is tailored to the meta. It uses Archfiend of the Drossto clock the opponent quickly and effectively suppress Sacrifice decks, and adds more spot removal and more Graveyard Trespasser // Graveyard Gluttonto handle Rakdos Aggro.

Compared with Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, the advantages of Archfiend of the Drossare:

1. It doesn’t die to a single Lightning Axe
2. It flies, so it isn’t afraid of all sorts of chump blockers
3. It beats most of the reach creatures in the format
4. It can be copied with Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikito reach a single-turn damage ceiling

But its weaknesses are also very obvious:

1. It is very afraid of Heartless Actpulling off three oil counters
2. It is also a clock on yourself. If you haven’t killed the opponent within three turns, you get killed instead, and when necessary you have to point your removal at your own creature
3. Against Phoenix, as long as the opponent can keep flying Phoenix back to chump, you lose if you’re blocked for three turns

The rest I think is a very solid build, though I personally don’t like the five 4-drop configuration. Without Sheoldred, the Apocalypseas a life gain source, it doesn’t feel like quite enough.

Also, the two Hidetsugu Consumes All // Vessel of the All-Consumingand one The Meathook Massacrein the sideboard are big weapons against Sacrifice.

Jund Sacrifice

BLB’s two new cards Ygra, Eater of Alland Scavenger's Talentgreatly bolster Sacrifice. The former provides an infinite combo, and the latter combines fodder, filling the graveyard, and reanimation in one card.

Dimir Rouges

Dimir Rouges made the Top 8.
… Dimir Rouges made the Top 8?!
It’s the year 4202, how is anyone still playing Dimir Rogues?!

Basically the build is a very standard gathering of Rogues. They also chose main-deck two Archfiend of the Drossand sideboard two The Meathook Massacreto fight Sacrifice.
This deck is also a good choice against control, as nearly all its creatures have flash and it has discard and counterspells too, all things control finds uncomfortable.
But in some matchups (for example Phoenix, and Phoenix, or Phoenix, and Phoenix, plus a Greasefang) it’s quite uncomfortable, since filling the opponent’s graveyard for them isn’t necessarily a good thing.

Regional Championship - SCG CON Washington DC

Melee link

Next, let’s look at the US championship. Again it was split across two days with 15 rounds of Swiss in total, and only players with 18 or more points on Day 1 advanced to Day 2.

Looking at the meta first, probably because 5C Enigmatic Incarnation did well in Brazil, quite a few people chose this deck.
Also, the number of Sacrifice decks is rather small (compared with Brazil). My guess is that everyone figured Sacrifice would be heavily targeted (after all, it’s also the easiest to target), so they chose other decks.

The Top 8 decks are:

Rakdos Cauldron

Basically this is a midrange deck with an off-board combo. For the combo, you use Agatha's Soul Cauldronto eat Tree of Perdition, pair it with other creatures to lower the opponent’s life total, then use Voldaren Thrillseeker‘s Backup ability to give another creature the throw ability and kill the opponent. You can also use Agatha's Soul Cauldronto eat it and then kill with a creature that has a +1/+1 counter.

I should also mention that in the final-round win-and-in match, the opponent made a very ugly play.
Anyway, it was a Rakdos mirror, one side playing Cauldron and the other Transmogrify. The Transmogrify player had Unlicensed Hearseon the board, and the Cauldron side had Agatha's Soul Cauldronbut was stuck on lands.
Because of the land screw, Cauldron could only grit their teeth and loot away Tree of Perdition. But the Transmogrify player voluntarily activated Unlicensed Hearseat end of turn to exile Tree of Perditionfrom the graveyard, and the Cauldron side responded by activating Agatha's Soul Cauldronto eat Tree of Perdition. Combo piece collection progress (1/2).
Then the Transmogrify side killed a creature on their own turn and activated Unlicensed Hearseto exile it, and on their own turn the Cauldron side discarded Voldaren Thrillseekerto the graveyard and ate it with Agatha's Soul Cauldron. Combo piece collection progress (2/2).

So you see, Unlicensed Hearsehas to play passively when there is an Agatha's Soul Cauldronaround. If Unlicensed Hearsenever activates, the first target of Agatha's Soul Cauldronwill certainly fail. The Cauldron side can only activate Agatha's Soul Cauldronon the opponent’s turn first to force them to tap Unlicensed Hearse, discard Voldaren Thrillseekerand eat it on their own turn, then find the second and third Tree of Perditionand trick the opponent once in the same way to succeed.

Rakdos Transmogrify

A Transmogrify list with two Ob Nixilis, plus three HCA between main deck and sideboard. Looks like they really didn’t want to lose to Sacrifice.

Rakdos Aggro

An uncreative Rakdos Aggro

Enigmatic Incarnation

Uh, it’s just Enigmatic Incarnation with a different toolbox combination. Nothing much to say.
The slightly special part is one extra Bitter Reunionto speed up the kill.

Izzet Phoenix

These two Phoenix lists look basically the same, differing only in details.
Also, Phoenix main decks now basically run bounce or enchantment removal, because there are just too many High Noonto ignore.

What’s left is the sideboard choices, and there are different sideboard strategies depending on different ideas.

Selesnya Company

This is basically Legacy’s Death & Taxes, but a Pioneer version mixed with green.
It mixes eight mana dorks and four Collected Companyas acceleration and value, and adds the new card Enduring Innocenceto refill the hand, so apart from a few creatures, other creatures draw a card when they enter.

I’m personally quite bullish on this deck. Thalia, Guardian of Thrabencan slow down Phoenix and Rakdos Aggro, and the 2/1 first strike body can hold off quite a few creatures in the format.
… If I hadn’t whiffed on Collected Companytwice in key games, I might have built it and taken it to MIT.

Azorius Lotus Field

Essentially a control deck, but it plays Lotus Fieldand Strict Proctoras mana cheating, and also hangs three Thespian's Stageto be greedy all the way.
Although it’s called control, this deck only plays a single counterspell, Censor, with the rest being removal.
But I think this is an understandable choice. I guess they felt the current meta doesn’t need that many counterspells and threats can all be handled with removal. After all, this deck might tap out on turn three for Strict Proctor+ Lotus Field, and counterspells can’t deal with threats in later turns while removal can, so they swapped the counterspell slots for removal.
Similarly, decks in the current meta either can’t be swept in time or don’t need sweeping, so they play only three Farewellas a way to fight Enigmatic Incarnation.

After writing this section, I went to their Twitter @WUCtrl and found this article: Regional Championship DC - UW Lotus Field, which explains why this list ended up this way. The reasons were about what I guessed, so I won’t translate it (?

MTG SEA Championship Final Season 3 Round 1

Melee link

This SEA Championship was held in Singapore. The first part was seven rounds of Swiss, same as ours, but the Top 8 was played on the second day.

Rakdos Aggro

The usual Rakdos Aggro.

Engimatic Incarnation

Note here that different people have different Engimatic Incarnation builds. Some choose mainly red and white removal like Lightning Helix, while others choose mainly black removal like Vanishing Verseand Fatal Push.

Azorius Humans

Basically Mono-White splashing blue. For the sake of four Mockingbird, Mockingbirdfills in when there aren’t enough Thalia’s Lieutenant.

Izzet Pheonix

What’s special about the Top 4 Phoenix is that it has Crackling Drakein the main deck, and plays four Artist's Talentto assist with card filtering (in place of the Ledger Shredderof a normal build). Some sideboards that also play Artist's Talentadd one Thassa's Oracleas an extra way to win.

The other build is more normal, though it likewise adds Artist's Talentto assist filtering, with fewer copies, and still keeps Ledger Shredder. Note that this one does have Thassa's Oraclein the sideboard.

Mono-Black Midrange

Mono-Black Demons uses Unstoppable Slasher‘s effect of cutting life in half on hit, paired with Bloodletter of Aclazotzdoubling life loss, to kill the opponent in a single hit, and adds DSK’s new card Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamberas a nice resource boost.

However, this list swaps one Bloodletter of Aclazotzfor Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, and plays one Heartless Actto fight the mirror (directly pulling the oil counters off the opponent’s Archfiend of the Dross).
Besides that, it plays some green lands to support the sideboard Back to Natureagainst matchups with enchantments.

チャンピオンズカップファイナル　シーズン 3 ラウンド 1　Champions Cup Final Season 3 Round 1

Melee link

Last is the RC in the Japan/Korea region, which is 12 rounds of Swiss over two days followed by a Top 8 single elimination.

By the way, Japan/Korea also only had 2XX players, but having to play 12 rounds over two days sounds really tiring = =

The Day 1 deck distribution is quite interesting. I didn’t expect Rakdos Midrange to be in second place, and the usually familiar Phoenix and Control both had especially low usage.

On Day 2 we can see that Mono-Black Demons had the highest conversion rate, once again proving it to be a good deck.

The Top 8 decks are:

Mono-Black Demons

The main decks aren’t just similar, they’re identical. The two decks differ only in the number and mix of removal spells.
The sideboard choices are more different, but still the commonly seen cards.

Rakdos Transmogrify

Another very standard Rakdos Transmogrify build, but it chose to put one Hidetsugu Consumes All // Vessel of the All-Consumingin the main deck, so you can deliberately look for this card, or use a solved Case of the Stashed Skeletonto find it.

Rakdos Midrange

The new version of Rakdos Midrange. The three-drop slot now plays Unstoppable Slasherto speed up the clock on the opponent, and since there are more Demons it also uses Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamberto replace Reckoner Bankbuster.

Mono-Red Aggro

It’s the year 4202, stop playing RDW

Rakdos Aggro

It’s just Rakdos Aggro, though what’s special is that it has two Thoughtseizein the main deck.

Selesnya Company

A very standard Selesnya Company.

Azorius Humans

Besides hanging extra Mockingbird, this Azorius Humans also has two Reflector Mage.

Wonderful Decks

That covers the Top 8 decks. Now let’s look at other decks outside the Top 8 that are still strong or worth watching.

Sans-Red Enigmatic Incarnation

The main Enigmatic Incarnation builds now all play red, pairing Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikifor filtering with Overlord of the Boilerbilgesas board clearing and a final finisher.

This deck instead uses the blue Overlord Overlord of the Floodpitsin the three-drop slot to replace the looting of Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki, and it can also trigger Up the Beanstalk.
It also uses the blue Overlord Overlord of the Floodpitsand the black Overlord Overlord of the Balemurkto fill the graveyard, providing fodder for Kroxa and Kunorosto produce an endless board.
Removal is mainly black: besides Fatal Push, there is DSK’s Nowhere to Run, and Nowhere to Runsuits this deck very well, since after killing a creature it can become fodder for Enigmatic Incarnationto sacrifice.

Abzan Greasefang w/ Overlord of the Balemurk & Say Its Name

Uses the new DSK cards Say Its Nameand Overlord of the Balemurk, and BLB’s Cache Grab, to replace the earlier Grisly Salvageand Witherbloom Commandas the new ways to fill the graveyard.
Also, when there are three Say Its Namein the graveyard, you can exile all three to bring back an Altanak, the Thrice-Calledfrom your library/graveyard/hand, and it has an activated ability of its own, so when drawn you can at least discard it and use it to ramp, so it isn’t a completely dead draw.

Boros Token Control

Basically a standard Boros Token Control, plus Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikiand March of Otherworldly Light, and some people play Wedding Announcement // Wedding Festivity.
It feels good against UW Control and midrange matchups, and its resources are hard to cut off.

Sultai Landfall Combo

Lots of ramp up front, then Port of Karfellreanimates Lumra, Bellow of the Woodsonto the battlefield, and the enter effect of Lumra, Bellow of the Woodsalso returns Port of Karfellto the battlefield.
If there is a second Lumra, Bellow of the Woodsin the graveyard, you can repeat this to mill the whole deck into the graveyard and return all the lands, including Festering Gulch, a land that deals 1 damage to the opponent when it enters, and use Lotus Fieldto eat it and Lotus Fielditself, then return them in an infinite loop.
However, this combo is a tiny bit (a hundred million bits) fragile. If Festering Gulchgets killed, you can only attack to kill the opponent. Although Lumra, Bellow of the Woodsis huge, it has no trample itself, so besides dying to removal it can also be chump-blocked by small creatures. The deck also doesn’t seem to have a way to shuffle the graveyard, so if you unluckily mill Festering Gulchonly at the very end and it gets exiled in response, the whole deck seems to be GG.
Personally I suggest considering one Turn the Earth, just in case the opponent has graveyard hate in the main deck.

Top 8 Count

Here is a summary of how many Top 8 spots each deck got:

I think Enigmatic Incarnation should be the best performer, at least with a much larger base than Izzet Phoenix and Rakdos Aggro.
Also, I’m not sure whether Control actually performs badly in the current meta or its pilots just had bad luck with positioning, but its Top 8 conversion rate is a bit low.
Mono-Black also did well, but the sample size is a bit small so far, and I’m not sure whether the cause is a successful ambush of the field.

Also, I personally feel the current field is a good fit for ambushing with rare decks. Selesnya Company is a great example: the build caught the weaknesses of Phoenix and Rakdos Aggro and got good results.

Meta Predictions

Finally, meta predictions. I think Taiwan will mainly consist of Mono-Black Demons, UWx Control, Izzet Phoenix, and Rakdos Aggro.
Mono-Black Demons is a midrange deck with a combo, and even just putting either of the two combo pieces on the board alone makes a very strong clock/defender.
UWx Control, because quite a few Taiwanese players like playing control, and Phoenix, because quite a few Taiwanese players already own the deck.
And Rakdos Aggro may attract some players who already have Rakdos Midrange to build it.

The rest should be decks like Rakdos Midrange, Rakdos Transmogrify, and Selesnya Company.
I also think Sacrifice isn’t a good choice, mainly because it’s too easy to target. Even though it now has win conditions besides Mayhem Devil, what can’t change is that it is extremely uncomfortable against Leyline of the Voidor Rest in Peace.

Conclusion

This article summarized the Top 8 decks of four RCs. I’m also quite torn about my own deck choice. My original Rakdos Midrange doesn’t perform very well in the current meta, but I’m of two minds about the other decks and can’t make a decision.
Over the past two weeks my deck choice jumped from Azorius Control (Yorion) to Rakdos Midrange, then a few days later became Rakdos Transmogrify, then Azorius Control (Kaheera), then after practicing for a few days went back to Rakdos Transmogrify, but right now besides Rakdos Transmogrify there are three other decks I’m choosing between…
I kind of want to just roll a die like I did for MIT #5…

See you at the tournament! Feel free to pat and feed me in person