Why (I Think) The One Ring Must Die: Dec 16th BnR Prediction

Note: This article was translated from Chinese by AI and may contain errors. Read the original Chinese version.

Before We Start

Yep, that’s right, I’m writing another BnR prediction.
After Nadu, Winged Wisdom, another card has become so disgusting that I want to write another article to rant about it.
This time the defendant (?) is The One Ring. According to MTGGoldfish’s stats, The One Ring‘s recent usage rate has reached 60%, which is an outrageous number. I don’t recall ever seeing a usage rate this high since I started playing.

Why is every single one of these a WRx Energy card? (rubs eyes)
By the way, the first non-WRx Energy card on the list is Consign to Memory, with a usage rate of 36%.

What the Hell Is This The One Ring Card, Bleeeeegh

The One Ringis a four-mana colorless legendary artifact. If the player cast it, that player gains protection from everything until their next turn. You can tap it to put a burden counter on it and then draw cards equal to the number of burden counters on it. During your upkeep, you lose 1 life for each burden counter on The One Ring.

Let me translate this card’s effect for you: four mana for an extra turn, then lose 1 life to draw at least three cards.
Wait, this effect is way too ridiculous. Is this effect really okay = =???
Merely surviving one more turn might be fine, but if it doesn’t get removed or you’re still alive, you can keep earning more cards, and if the pain gets truly unbearable, you just slam the next one.
Meanwhile the environment also has Twiddleand Minamo, School at Water's Edge, which can reset The One Ringso you draw even more cards for one payment of life.

I have to admit, though, that at first I was not bullish on this card. I thought a four-mana artifact that only draws cards and keeps costing you life was bad.
That was until I got beaten up by it in a tournament. After going home I furiously put two Commandeerin my sideboard, figuring that as long as I draw The One Ring, the card disadvantage is made up immediately. In the next week’s tournament I faced Mono-Green Tron: in one game I stole a Karn, the Great Creator, and in another I stole The One Ring, drawing fifteen extra cards and feeling great.
Later, MIT#5 was also where I qualified with a deck running The One Ring, Mono-Black Coffers. As an anti-Ring general, I am very sorry.

Times Have Changed, Sir, Nobody Accumulates Small Advantages Anymore

Think back on the old Jund Midrange: turn one Thoughtseizetakes the right card, turn two Dark Confidant, turn three you draw an extra card and slam Liliana of the Veil, +1 everyone discards or -2 the opponent jumps off a building, and it feels amazing. “I’m so good, I’ve built up a two-card advantage, lol, I’m about to win.”
Now, with the same start, as soon as the opponent follows up on time with a The One Ringat four mana, all the card advantage you built up gets spat back out. Never mind that cards drawn aren’t revealed and don’t cost nearly as much life (Dark Confidantflipping Bloodbraid Elffeels so good), and the opponent’s hand just keeps growing…

The Rise of The One Ring

That said, The One Ringhas been out for a long time. Why is its usage rate only this high now, high enough that it might even get banned?

I think this question can be answered in two phases: the first phase is from LTR’s release to before MH3, and the second phase is after MH3.

Phase One: LTR to MH3

Let us recall the environment after LTR: Rakdos Scam and Temur Rhinos dominated, and the decks that ran or could run The One Ringat the time were UWx Control, Mono-Green Tron, Mono-Black Coffers, Amulet Titan, and so on.

Besides the turn-one Griefscamming, Rakdos Scam also had Thoughtseizeto strip the hand and Orcish Bowmastersto punish players who draw lots of cards. Meanwhile, the decks that ran The One Ringwere almost all slow decks that had a hard time fighting Scam.
As for Temur Rhinos, besides Force of Negation, it later added Tishana's Tidebinderto suppress The One Ring, plus Bonecrusher Giant // Stompor Questing Beastas answers: on the play, turn three slam Shardless Agent, cascade into Crashing Footfallsfor two Rhinos, turn four hit for 10, turn five the damage can’t be prevented, hit for another 10 and call it a day.

Around MKM, Scam and Rhinos both took a hit, but the overall environment was still on the fast side. Many times you were nearly dead before you could cast The One Ring, or you still didn’t survive after slamming The One Ring.
At that point I thought The One Ringwas strong, but not strong enough to need a ban.

Phase Two: After MH3

More precisely, this should be after Nadu got banned and WRx Energy rose, though I believe everyone agrees that from MH3’s release until Nadu’s ban, the Modern format did not exist.

If we look at the current meta, we find that a large share of the decks running The One Ringare WRx Energy (other than WRx Energy, the decks that run The One Ringare basically the same as before MH3), so let us analyze how these two big meta cancers met.
The Boros Energy list originally developed by Aspiringspike did not have The One Ring. It was only after Nadu was banned, around the end of September, that people started trying The One Ring.
I think the reasons are simple. First, Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikiwas not strong enough: apart from copying Ocelot Pride, the copies were not strong enough, and WRx Energy is basically out of cards by around turn four, so Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jikicould not loot for more cards.
Second, to be more stable, WRx Energy gradually evolved from aggro into midrange, so someone insane tried The One Ring. Anyway, the hand runs dry around turns three or four, and following that with a The One Ringto refill a pile of cards is smooth in tempo terms, and with lifegain pieces like Guide of Souls/Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury/Ocelot Pride, losing a bit of life isn’t a big problem either.
Then they found that The One Ringis super strong in mirror matches: you can crush the opponent with a massive resource gap, and the side without The One Ringloses. It is also very useful when you go into long games against something like Jeskai Control. The spells all have small mana values, so if you can slam the Ring, surely you can also cast something else.

And the latest development is that WRx Energy has started running hate cards like Exorcisemain deck = =

It is also because this is the first time since LTR that a midrange deck with such a low curve has appeared, which I think was not anticipated when the card was designed.

Okay, there was already another low-curve deck before WRx Energy: Jund Sagavan. But Sagavan usually has to save extra mana for Urza's Saga, and Ragavan, Nimble Pilfereris no longer as dominant, making it hard to stockpile Treasures. Many times the mana is enough to slam The One Ring, but you would have to give up the chance of making a second Construct.

Another Voice

In the past two weeks, after exchanging opinions with other players, I heard another view: the reason there is so much The One Ringnow is all WRx Energy’s fault, and The One Ringitself isn’t actually that big a problem.
Indeed, if you subtract from The One Ring‘s usage rate the usage rates of cards like Guide of Soulsthat almost only WRx Energy plays, you find that without WRx Energy only about 20% of decks use The One Ring. But think about it carefully: after removing the roughly 40% that is WRx Energy, about 35% of the remaining decks still use this card. The number isn’t extremely high, but it is high enough.
So I would say it is two sides of the same coin: WRx Energy makes The One Ring, and The One Ringmakes WRx Energy harder to beat.

So much so that the well-known player and MO Modern grinder Andrea Mengucci announced he would pause making Modern content until the Dec 16th BnR.

I believe that besides Mengu, many streamers/YouTubers/content creators are already fed up with the current Modern environment. No matter how you play, you run into WRx Energy, which has the board and the resources. How are you supposed to beat it QAQ

Also, if we look at Consign to Memory, ranked 11th with a 36% usage rate, and look carefully at its effect, we find that this card is almost purely used to fight The One Ring. For a hate card, this usage rate is a bit too high.

For the reasons above, I think The One Ringneeds to be banned.

Restricted?

Another theory is that Wizards might restrict The One Ringto one copy for flavor, but I don’t think the chance is high.
At least MaRo said this on his blog this October:

Q: are there any restrictions on banning/restricting Universes Beyond cards from IP holders (eg. the One Ring in modern)?
A: We can ban or restrict any Universes Beyond card we need to. Note we don’t restrict cards in formats that don’t restrict cards (which is most formats).

Q: Are there any restrictions on banning/restricting Universes Beyond cards?
A: If necessary, we can ban or restrict any Universes Beyond card. Note that we don’t restrict cards in formats that don’t restrict cards (which is most formats).

Translation: except for Vintage, we never restrict cards, and if needed we will just ban them outright.

Not Dead After All

Besides the two opinions above, I think there is another possibility: that Wizards wants to reprint this card.

By reprint here I mean reprinting it in boosters, to attract players to crack more packs.

Likewise, according to what MaRo wrote on his blog in mid-September this year:

Q: Does WotC have the ability to reprint Universes Beyond cards? If so, would they have to be Universes-Within versions due to licensing restrictions? (Looking at you, “The One Ring”)
A: We have the ability to reprint some cards (without specific property mentions) straight up with new art. The rest we can reprint in a in-universe Magic equivalent form.

Q: Can WotC reprint Universes Beyond cards? If so, because of licensing restrictions, would these reprints have to be Universes Within versions (for example, The One Ring)?
A: We can reprint some cards (without specific property mentions) directly with new art. The rest we can reprint in an equivalent form.

Translating again: basically we can reprint all of these cards. For details, see how we reprinted the Stranger Things SLD cards (Universes Within, the SLX set).
At worst we just print a card with the same effect but a different name.

For these reasons, I can’t rule out Wizards wanting to print The One Ringagain under a different name to make another buck, and then ban it once they’ve milked it dry.
It would be disgusting if they really did this, but Wizards has killed the golden goose or slapped its own face countless times in recent years, so if they really do this I would be completely unsurprised.

Fellow Inmates

If The One Ringis simply banned, I think the environment will still be dominated by WRx Energy, which just swaps back to Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki.
Even with Suncleanser, it still can’t effectively suppress WRx Energy. After all, it is still a white card, and forcing white into your deck for this one matchup is a bit excessive, not to mention it can be removed by Lightning Bolt, Static Prison, or Goblin Bombardment.
So I think WRx Energy also needs a card banned. As I mentioned in the earlier article about the Nadu ban, Energy has no particularly good key card to ban. If I had to say, Guide of Soulsshould be the best target, removing both the lifegain and a source of energy.
Another suitable target is Amped Raptor, removing a well-built creature and also more resources. At worst that cut just swaps the same slot for Unstable Amulet, which is slower but earns more resources.

As for the other decks, none look like they need changes right now, and they are generally still healthy (?

I have heard scattered voices hoping Phlage, Titan of Fire's Furygets banned, but I personally think it is unlikely. After all, it is just a Titan that deals 3 and gains 3 when you cast it.
The reason Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrathwas banned back then is that it did three things at once: card draw + lifegain + ramp (well, okay, maybe not quite ramp). Missing any one of those abilities could have let it survive.
Otherwise look at Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hungerfrom the same period: discard + life loss (maybe not even that) is just two things, and compared with Uro its power is much lower.

The Seniors Released on Time Served

As in the previous article, I still think Umezawa's Jitteand Glimpse of Natureare very safe now and could be considered for unbanning. I won’t repeat the reasons; those interested can look through them yourself.

I also think Splinter Twincan be let out now. It may still be strong in the current environment, but so much has been removed by now, so a four-mana Aura combo should be acceptable…?
Although Wizards (or was it MaRo?) said before a previous ban announcement that they would not release Splinter Twin, the reason at the time was that even if the current environment could handle it, it would greatly warp how the game is played, which they still don’t want to see.

Finally, I think Ponderalso has a chance to be released. Its weaker sibling Preordainhas had no big problems since it was released, so a slightly better one-mana blue cantrip should be safe enough, right?

A Last Look at Other Formats

Standard has a combo that looks a bit disgusting at first glance: turn two Up the Beanstalk, turn three Overlord of the Hauntwoods, with a bit of déjà vu (Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath: let me out). I once thought this pairing was so disgusting it might get banned, but in the two-plus months since DSK’s release I haven’t seen this combo dominate the environment.
For the rest, only Dimir Midrange has a slightly high usage rate, and it all looks fine and fairly healthy.
There are also some Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber decks, but their usage rate isn’t as high as in Pioneer; it can only be called a good black card that took over the spot of Phyrexian Arenafrom before.

I think the Pioneer environment is quite healthy. At most Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber is a bit annoying, but otherwise no single deck dominates the environment.

As for Legacy, Dimir Scamimator is still active in tournaments after Griefwas banned, and another deck that looks 87% like Delver, Dimir Tempo, is also performing strongly.
The two have one thing in common: both run a full set of Psychic Frog.
So I think Psychic Frogis a bit dangerous: an active discard outlet, built-in evasion, and a continuous source of resources. You could call it the successor to Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer.
Although personally I think the reason Ragavan, Nimble Pilfererwas banned was that it earned an extra Treasure each turn, not that extra card…

Conclusion

Alright, last time I soaked up some traffic off Nadu (did I?), and this time I’m using The One Ring.
I forget where I saw this, but LTR was originally meant to be only a Legacy (or Commander) set, and it was the superiors/parent company who demanded it be pushed down to Modern.
Indeed, if you cover up The One Ringand Orcish Bowmasters, this set has almost no other outstanding strong cards, so pushing it down to Modern would certainly have been fine.
But after actually experiencing the despair that The One Ringbrings when it’s on the opponent’s side of the table, I began to realize this card’s problem seems bigger than I imagined.
As mentioned before, the WRx Energy side without The One Ringloses to the side that has it, which also reflects, from another angle, the imbalance The One Ringbrings to the environment.

I hope that on 12/16 I can post to celebrate The One Ringgetting banned, and start looking for a deck for the MIT#8 LCQ.

I mentioned on the fan page before that in the second half of last season I was a bit too lazy to play MITQ, because I didn’t want to play WRx Energy and didn’t want to get beaten by WRx Energy, so in the end I just lazed around at home.
I also mentioned that if The One Ringgets banned on 12/16, I will definitely rush into the LCQ (hey, I’m just a poor student who can’t afford four cards that cost $9X).

See you next week at BnR!